Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.054167 1.230611 1.427130 1.662207 1.935775 2.244136 2.618197
2024-12-22 0.733570 0.956488 1.232928 1.600860 2.077867 2.675721 3.482738
2024-12-29 0.623086 0.878265 1.219569 1.709281 2.394245 3.319116 4.664817
2025-01-05 0.502432 0.754671 1.113486 1.660839 2.475237 3.643545 5.450417
2025-01-12 0.412850 0.655210 1.018857 1.603780 2.521864 3.909688 6.172279
2025-01-19 0.346286 0.577324 0.940920 1.554160 2.563787 4.163032 6.896043
2025-01-26 0.309371 0.539456 0.917622 1.583570 2.728682 4.621286 7.997153
2025-02-02 0.292149 0.530973 0.939547 1.688279 3.028385 5.331735 9.605642
2025-02-09 0.268662 0.507632 0.932099 1.739547 3.240042 5.915397 11.066452
2025-02-16 0.244452 0.479151 0.911076 1.762185 3.400853 6.425366 12.455202
2025-02-23 0.220694 0.447918 0.880391 1.761567 3.516094 6.862370 13.757780
2025-03-02 0.198310 0.416107 0.844168 1.744658 3.596069 7.239288 14.986966
2025-03-09 0.180935 0.392620 0.822373 1.756033 3.738747 7.765310 16.604675
2025-03-16 0.158541 0.355597 0.768619 1.694848 3.725380 7.978898 17.612879
2025-03-23 0.154441 0.357459 0.796061 1.809732 4.100099 9.041112 20.568958
2025-03-30 0.137195 0.327445 0.750804 1.758462 4.103377 9.309372 21.811994
2025-04-06 0.121468 0.298658 0.704411 1.698067 4.077330 9.508286 22.921346
2025-04-13 0.108215 0.273853 0.663823 1.645545 4.062091 9.728400 24.107015
2025-04-20 0.101687 0.264573 0.658444 1.676675 4.250620 10.444027 26.575075
2025-04-27 0.100270 0.267962 0.684022 1.787506 4.649331 11.708993 30.563484
2025-05-04 0.095711 0.262572 0.687138 1.841772 4.912296 12.673584 33.917333
2025-05-11 0.089977 0.253248 0.679041 1.865734 5.099779 13.471214 36.941246
2025-05-18 0.083620 0.241318 0.662585 1.865079 5.221462 14.113527 39.633251